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RBC Bearings INC (RBC)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 FY26 revenue was $455.3M (+14.4% YoY) with adjusted EPS of $2.88; both exceeded Wall Street consensus estimates, driven by a 38.8% YoY surge in Aerospace/Defense and stable Industrial (+0.7%) . Estimates context: revenue $450.3M* and EPS $2.735*, implying a beat of ~$5.0M and ~$0.15, respectively (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $145.3M (31.9% margin), and free cash flow was $71.7M (119.5% conversion), reflecting strong execution and working-capital discipline .
- Backlog accelerated to $1.6B (from $1.0B in Q1 and ~$0.94B in Q4), with management signaling potential approach to ~$2B by year-end, supported by defense and commercial aero rate ramps and VACCO acquisition .
- Q3 FY26 guidance: net sales $454–$462M (YoY +15.1–17.1%), adjusted gross margin 44.0–44.25%, SG&A 17.0–17.25%; organic sales growth expected 7.4–9.5% . Key stock catalysts: Boeing/Airbus rate increases, defense program ramp (submarines), VACCO integration synergies, and Boeing/Airbus contract repricing benefits beginning Jan 1 shipments .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Aerospace/Defense strength: A&D sales up 38.8% YoY; commercial aerospace +21.6% and defense +73.3% YoY, with management highlighting “unprecedented levels” of demand and entry into a “unique period” poised to deliver a record year .
- Margin and cash flow execution: Adjusted gross margin expanded to 44.9% (+120 bps YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin held at 31.9%; free cash flow conversion rose to 119.5% (vs 49.4% last year) on improved earnings and working capital .
- Backlog momentum and pricing: Backlog hit $1.6B; management expects ~$2B by year-end; renegotiated airframe contracts to see benefits on shipments after Jan 1, supporting margins .
What Went Wrong
- Capacity constraints capped revenue in A&D despite strong demand; management is adding shifts/manpower/capex to expand throughput, implying near-term production bottlenecks .
- Industrial OEM softness persisted (OEM off 4.7%), with weakness in oil, semiconductor machinery, and European machine tools; sequential decline noted in Industrial distribution (seasonal/lumpy orders) .
- Higher tax rate impacted GAAP results: Q2 effective tax rate 28.0% (vs 21.9% LY), including ~$2.3M deferred tax expense related to VACCO acquisition .
Financial Results
Summary vs Prior Periods
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Performance vs Estimates
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our performance during the second quarter achieved a very high standard as demand from many of our core markets reached unprecedented levels… Clearly, we have entered a unique period in our business cycle and look forward to delivering a record year to our shareholders.” – Dr. Michael J. Hartnett .
- “Backlog is up to $1.6 billion today… We fully expect to approach $2 billion in backlog by year's end.” – Dr. Hartnett .
- “We should see most, if not all [contract repricing] right away on the shipments that start after January 1.” – Dr. Hartnett on Boeing/Airbus LTAs .
- “Adjusted EBITDA of $145.3 million… represents an approximate 17.7% increase in EBITDA dollars compared to last year… Free cash flow in the quarter came in at $71.7 million, with conversion of 119.5%.” – Rob Sullivan .
Q&A Highlights
- Backlog drivers and composition: ~+$500M increase due to VACCO; >90% backlog A&D; negotiations expected to round backlog to ~$2B near year-end .
- Capacity plan and margin implications: Plants at ~100% utilization; adding shifts/manpower/capex; improved overhead absorption to expand margins .
- VACCO margins and synergy: Currently mid-20% adjusted gross margins; management expects margin expansion through operational synergies and West Coast capacity; renegotiating space contracts .
- Boeing/Airbus repricing: After two years of weekly negotiations, benefits largely effective for shipments post Jan 1; neither side fully satisfied, but RBC “wasn't disappointed” .
- Macro/tariffs/materials: No rare earth impact; exotic stainless supply improved; tariffs neutralized through pricing/contract terms; defense programs insulated from shutdown .
Estimates Context
- Q2 FY26 vs consensus: Revenue $455.3M vs $450.3M* – beat of ~$5.0M (+1.1%); adjusted EPS $2.88 vs $2.735* – beat of ~$0.15 (+5.3%); adjusted EBITDA $145.3M vs $137.2M* – beat of ~$8.1M . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Q1 FY26 vs consensus: Revenue $436.0M vs $432.3M*; adjusted EPS $2.84 vs $2.742*; adjusted EBITDA $141.5M vs $135.0M* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Consensus likely rises for FY26 and Q3 reflecting stronger A&D mix, backlog, and early pricing tailwinds; organic growth guide (7.4–9.5%) and margin maintenance supports stable upward revisions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- A&D mix is inflecting positively; defense and commercial aero rate ramps plus VACCO add incremental growth and pricing tailwinds; backlog trajectory to ~$2B is a major visibility catalyst .
- Contract repricing with Boeing/Airbus should begin to benefit margins from shipments after Jan 1, compounding with overhead absorption as capacity expands .
- Industrial remains mixed; watch distribution seasonality and OEM weakness (oil/semis/Europe) as offsets to A&D strength .
- Cash generation remains strong; deleveraging plan on track (term loan paydowns, revolver extended to 2030), reducing interest expense and supporting equity value .
- Q3 guide implies sustained growth with maintained margin structure; organic growth 7.4–9.5% supports near-term revenue beats if execution holds .
- VACCO integration is a medium-term margin expansion opportunity with West Coast synergies; expect mid-20% margin drag to diminish over 18–24 months .
- Near-term trading: Positive skew from estimates beats, backlog growth, and imminent pricing benefits; medium-term thesis: margin expansion through mix, pricing, and integration, underpinned by secular A&D demand .